Part One in cQuant’s Journey in Renewables called out the important factors that need to be examined when evaluating PPA contracts. In Part Two, we will be explaining how to create historical generation profiles specifically for renewable assets. If renewable assets are already established, then the historical generation profile is easily obtainable in order to simulate risk. However, if renewable assets are yet to be developed or not yet commercially online, then the process is more in-depth. Below we will walk you through how each scenario is addressed at cQuant.
- If the asset already exists, is commercially online, and has sufficient historical data, historical generation data can be fed into cQuant’s simulation-based analysis. cQuant will take that data and simulate future results considering the risk factors.
- If the asset does not yet exist, and an 8760-generation profile is available from the developer, the generation profile data can be used in lieu of historical generation data. This data can be used until historical data is organically generated from the asset over time.
- For projects that do not yet have historical data, cQuant staff can leverage historical hourly wind speed and/or solar radiation data at the project site. This weather data, sourced from the Integrated Surface Database from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is combined with various project-specific configuration parameters at the project’s latitude and longitude. The project parameters consist of: nameplate capacity, solar panel tilt angle, wind turbine manufacturer/model number, loss factors, and a variety of PPA contract terms (price collars or floors, escalation rates, hub settlement provisions, etc.) to create a simulated view of what the project would have generated historically, and the associated value of a power purchase agreement.
Historical generation profiles are important pieces of the energy analytical puzzle. These profiles help us simulate the market value of an asset, validate generation expectations to meet demand and overall, better understand the non-dispatchable and intermittent nature of renewable generation.
To learn more about historical generation profiles, read our specific use case on Renewable Project Valuation.
cQuant.io is an industry leader in analytic solutions for energy and commodity companies. Specializing in Total Portfolio Analysis, cQuant’s cloud-native platform enables physical asset, financial contract, market simulation and risk management analytics in one place. cQuant is the leader in analytics for renewable, storage and other clean energy technologies. cQuant’s customers have greater insight into their financial forecasts and the drivers of value and risk in their business. Visit cQuant.io for more information and request your free demo today.